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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-04-29T02:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-04-29T02:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24842/-1
CME Note: Faint CME with what appears to be multiple fronts seen to the S/SW in STEREO A COR2 imagery and more generally to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 & C3 imagery. There is a fairly wide source region with associated brightening and dimming ranging from -20 to -40 degrees latitude and -10 to +30 degrees longitude starting around 01:30Z. This eruption encompasses AR13288. It is best seen in SDO/AIA 193, 304, and 211 as well as STEREO A EUVI 195.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-05-02T22:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-04-29T10:02
Radial velocity (km/s): 510
Longitude (deg): 15
Latitude (deg): -43
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 74.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-04-29T19:14Z

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